Peanuts Market Analysis 2024: Global Trends, Production Insights, and Trade Opportunities

The global peanut market in 2024 is witnessing significant fluctuations, driven by weather impacts, price changes, and production challenges in key producing countries like the United States, Turkey, and China. This detailed analysis covers current production trends, price movements, and insights for traders, especially in the UAE and Asia.

Global Peanut Production and Price Trends

1. United States: Hope for Rain to Boost Production

   • Production Outlook: US peanut growers are closely monitoring weather conditions, hoping for rainfall in key growing regions to salvage the 2024 harvest. Drought conditions have led to concerns over yield potential, with expectations for rain in September offering some relief.
   • Price Trends: Due to the unpredictable harvest, peanut prices in the US have seen fluctuations. The overall supply remains uncertain, and prices may rise if rainfall doesn’t materialize as expected.
      
2. Turkey: Price Drops and Yield Loss
   • Production Challenges: In Turkey, particularly in regions like Adana and Osmaniye, peanut production has faced significant setbacks due to extreme heat, leading to a one-third reduction in yields. Farmers are struggling with both lower yields and reduced prices, which have dropped by 50% from 2023 levels.
   • Current Prices: Peanut prices in Turkey have plummeted from 56 lira/kg last year to 28-31 lira/kg in 2024, leaving many farmers unable to cover production costs.
      
3. China: Upcoming Harvest Season
   • Harvest Season: China is set to begin its peanut harvest in late September 2024, particularly in key regions like Shandong. Weather conditions in China have been favorable, leading to expectations of a strong harvest.
   • Export Focus: The Chinese peanut variety ‘Seaflower’ is expected to be ready for export by the end of September, contributing to global supply, particularly in Asia.

Price Trends in 2024

• Global Overview: Peanut prices have been highly volatile in 2024, driven by both supply disruptions and weather-related yield reductions. While China and India expect stable or improved yields, Turkey and the US face significant challenges that may impact global prices.

• Turkey: Farmers in Turkey are pushing for higher prices, with costs of production doubling over the past year. With prices as low as 28 lira/kg, farmers are demanding support to avoid widespread bankruptcies.
   
• United States: If rainfall continues to fall short, US peanut prices could rise sharply in the coming months due to supply shortages.

Main Importers and Exporters in 2024

• India: India remains a significant exporter of peanuts, benefiting from favorable weather conditions this year. The country exports heavily to markets in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, including the UAE.

• China: As the second-largest exporter of peanuts, China will contribute significantly to global supply once the harvest begins in September 2024. Its exports mainly go to Asia, Europe, and North America.
   
• Turkey: While Turkey produces a significant portion of the world’s peanuts, particularly for the European market, current production challenges have led to a significant reduction in export potential.

Product Quality in 2024

• US Quality: With drought conditions affecting US peanut crops, concerns over product quality are rising. However, with potential rainfall on the horizon, there remains hope for a recovery in yield and quality.

• Turkey's Struggle: The heatwave in Turkey has not only reduced peanut yields but also impacted the quality, with many farmers reporting smaller and less marketable nuts.
   
• China’s Strong Outlook: China’s peanut crop is expected to maintain high quality due to favorable weather conditions, which should help stabilize global supply.

Insights for Traders in the UAE and Asia

1. Diversify Supply Sources: With Turkey and the US facing production challenges, traders in the UAE and Asia should look to China and India for more reliable peanut supplies in 2024.

2. Monitor Weather Conditions: Given the weather-related issues in key producing regions, traders should closely monitor market developments to capitalize on price shifts and ensure timely procurement.
    
3. Focus on Quality: With potential quality concerns in Turkey and the US, traders should prioritize sourcing from regions with stable production and high-quality output, such as China and India.

FAQs for the Peanuts Market in 2024

1. Why are peanut prices fluctuating in 2024?
2. Peanut prices are fluctuating due to weather impacts on production, especially in the US and Turkey. While some regions expect stable output, supply shortages and cost pressures are driving price volatility.
    
3. What are the main peanut-producing countries in 2024?
   The main peanut-producing countries in 2024 are the United States, China, India, and Turkey. China and India are expected to see stable or improved yields, while the US and Turkey face production challenges.
    
4. How has Turkey's peanut production been affected in 2024?
   Turkey’s peanut production has been significantly impacted by extreme heat, leading to a one-third reduction in yield and a sharp decline in prices, making it difficult for farmers to cover their costs.
    
5. What are the current price trends in the peanut market?
   In Turkey, peanut prices have dropped from 56 lira/kg to 28-31 lira/kg. In the US, prices are expected to rise if weather conditions don't improve. Meanwhile, China’s upcoming harvest is expected to stabilize prices globally.
    
6. Who are the main importers of peanuts in 2024?
   Major peanut importers in 2024 include Southeast Asia, the Middle East (especially the UAE), Europe, and North America, with India and China being the leading exporters.
    
7. What opportunities exist for peanut traders in the UAE and Asia? Traders in the UAE and Asia can capitalize on stable supplies from China and India while monitoring price trends in the US and Turkey to secure high-quality peanuts at competitive rates.

Conclusion

The global peanut market in 2024 is shaped by weather challenges, fluctuating prices, and production uncertainties. By staying informed on the latest developments and diversifying supply sources, traders can navigate the volatile landscape and ensure efficient operations.